Technological Progress and the Duration of Contribution Spans

This study uses the scientific and patent literature as a source of data to analyze the relationship between author/inventor contribution spans and the rate of technological progress in two chemical fields. Using survival analysis statistics, the authors examine the probability that an individual will contribute to the field for a specified length of time and the probability that an individual, having contributed to the field for a specified period of time, will cease to contribute in the future. The authors also test the significance of several covariates in predicting the length of contribution spans. Introduction Predicting the rate of technological progress within a given field is an enduring problem for those individuals who are responsible for the allocation of scarce resources. Ideally, if managers and government policy makers had at their disposal an array of indicators to enable them to predict the rate of technological progress in a field, optimal resource allocation would be assured. Indeed, the ability of managers and policy makers to comprehend the pace and the direction of technological advancement will largely determine their firm’s or nation’s competitive performance in world markets into the next century. This is no small task. Historical accounts of industrial evolution, such as with the development of semiconductors, videocassette recorders, and personal computers, show the immense difficulties some firms encounter when confronted by new technologies [l-3]. Undoubtedly, there is an obvious need to enhance our understanding of the way in which new technologies emerge. To this end, different methodologies, ranging from qualitative case studies to sophisticated quantitative forecasting models, have been developed [4-71. These developments have established technological forecasting as an academic discipline in its own right. However, the many pitfalls characteristic of technological forecasts and the often limited usefulness of their outcomes have been noted with striking regularity [g-lo]. As a consequence, technological forecasters face a dilemma. On the one hand, indicators of technological progress have often been illusive. On the other hand, intense global competition in industry and constrained government MICHAEL A. RAPPA is an assistant professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management. KOENRAAD DEBACKERE is a Fulbright postdoctoral research fellow at MIT and a research associate with the Vlerick School, Rijkuniversiteit Gent. RAGHU GARUD is an assistant professor with the Stem School, New York University. Address reprint requests to Prof. Michael A. Rappa, E52-538, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.